The Framingham Heart Study is a project of Boston University & the National Heart, Lung, & Blood Institute.
The Framingham Heart Study is a project of Boston University & the National Heart, Lung, & Blood Institute.
FHS Risk Functions Congestive Heart Failure Diabetes Fatty Liver Disease Hypertension Intermittent Claudication

Stroke after Atrial Fibrillation

(based on Wang, Massaro, Levy et al. ‘A Risk Score for Predicting Stroke or Death in Individuals with New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in the Community’, JAMA 2003)

Outcome
Stroke

Duration of follow-up
Maximum of 10 years; mean 4 years; 5-year risk estimated

Population of interest
705 individuals aged 55 – 94 years from the Original and Offspring Cohorts of the Framingham Heart Study meeting the following criteria:

Predictors

Risk Score Calculators

Interactive

Excel spreadsheet

Score Sheet

Step 1
Age, y Points
55-59 0
60-62 1
63-66 2
67-71 3
72-74 4
75-77 5
78-81 6
82-85 7
86-90 8
91-93 9
>93 10
Step 2
Sex Points
Men 0
Women 6
Step 3
Systolic Blood
Pressure, mm Hg
Points
<120 0
120-139 1
140-159 2
160-179 3
>179 4
Step 4
Diabetes Points
No 0
Yes   5
Step 5
Prior Stroke or TIA Points
No 0
Yes   6

Step 6

Add Up Points From Steps 1 Through 5
Look Up Predicted 5-Year Risk of Stroke in Table

Predicted 5-year Risk of Stroke or Death
Total Points 5-Year Risk, %
0-1 5
2-3 6
4 7
5 8
6-7 9
8 11
9 12
10 13
11 14
12 16
13 18
14 19
15 21
16 24
17 26
18 28
19 31
20 34
21 37
22 41
23 44
24 48
25 51
26 55
27 59
28 63
29 67
30 71
31 75
Means and Cox Regression Coefficients
Variables Cox Regression Coefficient Risk Factor Mean
Sex (1=Men, 2=Women) 0.650715 1.48
Age, per y 0.029065   75
Systolic Blood Pressure, per mmHg 0.006130 146
Diabetes Mellitus 0.589268 0.15
Prior Stroke/TIA 0.631572 0.14
Baseline Survival at 5 years, S0(5) 0.857100


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Risk Stroke Calculator

Gender:
M   F
Age:
Systolic Blood Pressure mm Hg:
Cigarette Smoker in Past Year:
Yes   No
Diabetes:
Yes   No
Prior Stroke/Transient Ischemic Attack (TIA):
Yes   No
History of Congestive Heart Failure or Myocardial Infarction:
Yes   No
Significant Murmur (grade 3/6 or higher systolic, any diastolic):
Yes   No
Electrocardiographic Left Ventricular Hypertrophy (LVH):
Yes   No

5-Year Risk of Stroke

 
0%
Your risk
 
0%
Comparative
Comparative Risks of Stroke for same age and gender (lowest stroke risk=normal SBP (<120), no diabetes, prior stroke or TIA

5-Year Risk of Stroke or Death

 
0%
Your risk
 
0%
Comparative
Comparative Risks of Stroke or Death for same age and gender (lowest stroke/ death risk=normal SBP (<120), no smoking, diabetes, CHF/MI, murmur, or LVH