The Framingham Heart Study is a project of Boston University & the National Heart, Lung, & Blood Institute.
The Framingham Heart Study is a project of Boston University & the National Heart, Lung, & Blood Institute.
FHS Risk Functions Congestive Heart Failure Diabetes Fatty Liver Disease Hypertension Intermittent Claudication

Recurrent Coronary Heart Disease

(based on D’Agostino, Russell MW, Huse DM et al. ‘Primary and subsequent coronary risk appraisal: new results from the Framingham Study’, American Heart Journal 2000)

Outcome
Subsequent CHD (includes mostly hospitalized events consisting of myocardial infarction, coronary insufficiency, angina pectoris, and sudden and non-sudden coronary death)

Duration of follow-up
Maximum of 4 years, 2-year risk prediction

Population of interest
Individuals who had at least one CHD event or ischemic stroke before examination and survived the acute stage of that event.

Predictors

Men: 2-year risk of recurring CHD

Age Points
35 – 39 0
40 – 44 1
45 – 49 3
50 – 54 4
55 – 59 6
60 – 64 7
65 – 69 9
70 – 74 10
HDL-C
Total-C 25 30 35 40 45 50 60 70 80
160 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 1 0
170 11 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 1
180 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 2 1
190 12 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 2
200 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 3 2
210 13 11 10 9 7 7 5 4 2
220 13 11 10 9 8 7 5 4 3
230 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 4 3
240 14 12 11 10 9 8 6 5 4
250 14 13 11 10 9 8 6 5 4
260 15 13 12 10 9 8 7 5 4
270 15 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 5
280 15 14 12 11 10 9 7 6 5
290 16 14 13 11 10 9 8 6 5
300 16 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 6
Diabetes
No 0
Yes 4
Pts 2-yr
Probabilities
Pts 2-yr
Probabilities
Pts 2-yr
Probabilities
0 3% 14 9% 28 25%
2 4% 16 11% 30 29%
4 4% 18 13%
6 5% 20 14%
8 6% 22 17%
10 7% 24 19%
12 8% 26 22%

Women: 2-year risk of recurring CHD

Age Points
35 – 39 0
40 – 44 1
45 – 49 2
50 – 54 3
55 – 59 4
60 – 64 5
65 – 69 6
70 – 74 7
HDL-C
Total-C 25 30 35 40 45 50 60 70 80
160 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 1 0
170 11 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 1
180 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 2 1
190 12 10 9 8 7 6 4 3 2
200 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 3 2
210 13 11 10 9 8 7 5 4 2
220 13 12 10 9 8 7 5 4 3
230 14 12 11 9 8 7 6 4 3
240 14 12 11 10 9 8 6 5 4
250 14 13 11 10 9 8 7 5 4
260 15 13 12 11 9 9 7 6 4
270 15 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 5
280 15 14 12 11 10 9 8 6 5
290 16 14 13 12 10 10 8 7 5
300 16 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 6
Diabetes Cigs
No 0 No 0
Yes 3 Yes 4
SBP
<110 0
110-114 1
115-124 3
125-134 4
135-144 5
145-154 6
155-164 7
165-184 8
185-194 9
195-214 10
215-224 11
225-244 12
245+ 13
Pts 2-yr
Probabilities
Pts 2-yr
Probabilities
Pts 2-yr
Probabilities
0 1% 14 3% 28 9%
2 1% 16 3% 30 11%
4 1% 18 4% 32 13%
6 1% 20 5% 34 16%
8 2% 22 5% 36 19%
10 2% 24 7% 38 22%
12 2% 26 8%

Weibull Regression coefficients for direct estimation of risk of subsequent CHD event

Variable Men Women
Intercept 4.995 13.537
Age -0.0145 -0.0225
In (total cholesterol/HDL) -0.6738 -0.834
In (SBP) -1.3713
Diabetes -0.3042 -0.7829
Smoker -0.3669
Extreme Value Parameter 0.9994 1.0313