The Framingham Heart Study is a project of Boston University & the National Heart, Lung, & Blood Institute.
The Framingham Heart Study is a project of Boston University & the National Heart, Lung, & Blood Institute.
FHS Risk Functions Congestive Heart Failure Diabetes Fatty Liver Disease Hypertension Intermittent Claudication

Diabetes

(based on Wilson, Meigs, Sullivan, Fox, Nathan, D’Agostino. ‘Prediction of Incident Diabetes Mellitus in Middle-aged Adults: The Framingham Offspring Study,’ Archives of Internal Medicine 2007)

Outcome
Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (fasting blood glucose at or above 126 mg/dL)

Duration of follow-up
Average of 7-years, 8-year risk prediction

Population of interest
Individuals 45 to 64 years

Predictors

Risk Score Calculator

Interactive

Logistic Regression Model with Coefficients

Variable Beta* OR 95% CI p-value
Intercept -5.517
Age, y
<50 Referent
50-64 -0.018 0.98 (0.64 – 1.50) 0.93
≥65 -0.081 0.92 (0.54 – 1.59) 0.77
Male -0.010 0.99 (0.70 – 1.41) 0.95
Parental history of diabetes mellitus 0.565 1.76 (1.17 – 2.64) 0.006
BMI
<25 Referent
25.0-29.9 0.301 1.35 (0.78 – 2.34) 0.28
≥30.0 0.92 2.50 (1.45 – 4.30) 0.001
Blood pressure >130/85mmHG or receiving therapy 0.498 1.65 (1.10 – 2.46) 0.02
HDL-C level <40 mg/dL in men or <50 mg/dL in women 0.944 2.57 (1.75 – 3.77) <.001
Triglyceride level ≥150 mg/dL 0.575 1.78 (1.22 – 2.59) 0.003
Fasting glucose level 100-126 mg/dL 1.980 7.25 (4.89 – 10.74) <.001

*Conversion from beta coefficient to predicted probability of diabetes in 8 years

p = 
1
1+e -z

z = ß0 + ß1x1 + ß2x2 + … + ßkxk
where z indicates regression equation with beta coefficients taken from table above (ß0 as intercept) and x’s indicating values of corresponding risk factor (0 or 1 for each category)

Point Designation based on predictors for 8-Year Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in Middle-aged Adults

Points
Fasting glucose level 100-126 mg/dL 10
BMI 25.0-29.9 2
BMI >30.0 5
HDL-C level <40 mg/dL in men or <50 mg/dL in women 5
Parental History of diabetes mellitus 3
Triglyceride level >150 mg/dL 3
Blood pressure >130/85 mmHG or receiving treatment 2

Given Total Points from Previous Table, there is an APPROXIMATE Percentage Risk for Type 2 Diabetes in Middle-aged Adults

Total Points 8 Year Risk, %
≤10 <3
11 4
12 4
13 5
14 6
15 7
16 9
17 11
18 13
19 15
20 18
21 21
22 25
23 29
24 33
≥25 >35


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Diabetes Risk Calculator

Gender:
M   F
Age (years):
Systolic Blood Pressure (mmHg):
Diastolic Blood Pressure (mmHg):
Treatment for Hypertension:
Yes   No
Height (inches):
Weight (pounds):
Your BMI: 0
HDL-C Level (mg/dL):
Triglyceride Level (mg/dL):
Fasting Glucose Level (mg/dL):
Parental Diabetes:
Yes  No

8 Year Risk

 
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